Market reports

Spain’s two-speed housing recovery

The government has released the last of 2015’s property market statistics and they reveal steady growth but wide gaps in Spain’s ongoing housing recovery.

The official House Price Index attracted the most headlines by finishing the year up 4.2%. The problem with prices is they tell you very little about the real health of the market.

The numbers we prefer are transactions. How many houses are being bought and sold?

Source: fomento.gob.es

Source: fomento.gob.es

With a full year’s data for 2015 we can take an annualised look at sales and this reveals good news. Overall property market activity rose 10% in 2015, to over 400,000 house sales. International buyers were particularly busy, generating over 71,000 sales and continuing a strong return to the market.

There’s a lot more to the story provincially though. When we check 2015 sales volumes against their 2007 levels, it reveals a very mixed picture of recovery:

recovery-map-en

Dark green shows a faster market recovery

Madrid’s property market is already back to 71% of its pre-crisis sales levels, while other provincial markets are still barely one third of where they were at 9 years ago.

Province House sales 2015 vs. 2007
Madrid 57,297 71.5%
Guipuzcoa 5,342 68.9%
Biscay 9,152 64.3%
Malaga 25,766 63.9%
Barcelona 41,344 62.3%
Balearic Islands 12,882 59.2%
Cueta 506 54.8%
Zaragoza 7,970 53.9%
Alicante 31,727 53.6%
Navarra 4,539 52.4%
Girona 8,378 51.3%
Segovia 1,488 50.6%
Santa Cruz de Tenerife 9,117 49.7%
Las Palmas 10,527 48.9%
Lugo 2,418 47.6%
Valencia 21,704 45.9%
Teruel 1,160 44.8%
Soria 778 43.3%
Tarragona 8,399 42.9%
Melilla 468 41.7%
Alava 1,904 41.4%
Cadiz 10,055 41.2%
Palencia 1,218 41.1%
Burgos 3,359 40.8%
Granada 7,904 40.8%
Guadalajara 2,597 40.2%
Cordoba 4,771 40.0%
Valladolid 3,630 39.6%
La Rioja 3,126 39.6%
Seville 12,812 39.5%
Badajoz 4,048 38.1%
Ourense 1,409 37.7%
Zamora 1,154 37.0%
Almeria 7,606 36.9%
Huesca 2,208 36.9%
Murcia 12,807 36.5%
Pontevedra 4,406 36.5%
Huelva 4,221 36.3%
Salamanca 2,370 36.0%
A Coruna 6,386 35.8%
Albacete 2,306 35.8%
Caceres 2,279 35.0%
Cantabria 4,663 34.6%
Jaen 3,632 33.9%
Asturias 6,523 33.1%
Lleida 2,986 32.6%
Castellon 6,229 32.3%
Avila 1,336 32.2%
Toledo 5,329 30.9%
Leon 2,986 30.8%
Cuenca 1,220 27.7%
Ciudad Real 2,839 26.5%

The picture that emerges from these figures is of a recession that was not evenly spread. But the numbers also show 2015 marked a big change to the narrative: House prices rose, sales volumes rose and the outlook turned positive across every market indicator.

With the tough times behind us the question is no longer where we’ll see growth in sales. The question in 2016 is where we’ll see the fastest growth in sales.

If you were waiting for better times, they’re here. Now’s the time for smart thinking and an eye on growth.

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Kyero.com promotes 200,000 properties in Spain to international buyers in 13 languages

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